Figma (FIG) IPO - The Design Platform Every Designer Uses

📋 Executive Summary

Figma (NYSE: FIG) has emerged as the most watched IPO of 2025, recording nearly 40x oversubscription. As the leader in cloud-based design collaboration platforms, Figma aims for a maximum enterprise value of $18.8 billion and plans to raise approximately $1.2 billion.

🎯 Key Investment Points

✅ Strong Growth Momentum

• $749 million revenue in 2024 (48% YoY growth)
• Q1 2025 revenue of $228 million (46% YoY growth)
• Net Dollar Retention (NDR) of 132% - proving continuous expansion of existing customers

✅ Market-Dominant Position

• Used by 95% of Fortune 500 companies
• 13 million monthly active users worldwide
• 40.65% market share in design software
• Market power so strong that Adobe's $20 billion acquisition attempt was blocked by regulators

⚠️ Key Investment Risks

• High valuation: approximately 17-20x revenue multiple
• Dual-class structure with CEO holding 75% voting rights
• Potential long-term threats from AI technology advancement

🔥 Why Is Figma's IPO So Hot?

The Meaning of 40x Oversubscription

The explosive interest in Figma's IPO among investors can be explained simply by numbers. Despite raising the IPO price range from the original $25-28 to $30-32 on July 28, it still recorded nearly 40x oversubscription.

This is the hottest response of 2025. Considering that Circle Internet's IPO in June recorded 20x oversubscription and surged 168% on the first day, Figma's interest level is twice as high.

IPO Details and Key Information

📅 IPO Timeline:

• July 25: S-1 filing disclosed
• July 28: IPO price range raised ($30-32)
• July 30: Final IPO price confirmation expected
• August 1: Expected NYSE trading start

💼 Key IPO Data:

• Ticker Symbol: FIG (NYSE)
• IPO Price Range: $30-32 per share (raised)
• Total Shares Issued: 36.9 million shares
  • New shares by company: 12.47 million
  • Existing shareholder sales: 24.46 million
• Fundraising Target: Up to $1.2 billion
• Fully Diluted Enterprise Value: $18.8 billion (at high end)
• Lead Underwriters: Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan, Allen & Co.

Potential to Become 2025's Largest IPO

The largest IPO of 2025 so far has been CoreWeave's $1.5 billion. Even if Figma raises the expected $1.2 billion, it would rank second in terms of size, but considering market interest and oversubscription multiples, it's likely to be evaluated as the most successful IPO of the year.

Particularly after tech IPOs were generally sluggish in 2023-2024, Figma's IPO is being interpreted as a signal of recovery in the tech IPO market. This reflects investors' psychology of wanting to quench their thirst for growth stocks that had been suppressed through Figma.

🏢 What Kind of Company Is Figma?

Revolutionary Force in Collaborative Design

Figma is a cloud-native design collaboration platform established in 2012. Unlike traditional individual work-focused design software, it presented a completely new paradigm centered on real-time multi-user collaboration.

The traditional design workflow was as follows:

1. Designers work individually
2. Share files via email or cloud
3. Collect feedback and make revisions
4. Complex handoff process when delivering to developers

Figma revolutionized all these processes to be handled in real-time within a single browser environment. Designers, developers, project managers, and even CEOs can simultaneously view and edit the same file while adding comments.

Core of the Business Model

Key Innovation Elements:

• Web-based real-time collaboration: Simultaneous work in browser without separate installation
• Multiplayer design: Multiple people editing one file simultaneously
• Developer-friendly: Smooth handoff between design and development
• Free entry: Individual users can start for free

Revenue Model:
Figma adopts a Freemium model. Individual users or small teams start for free, but as team size grows or advanced features are needed, they convert to paid plans.

• Individual: Free (individual users)
• Professional: $12/month per editor (small teams)
• Organization: $45/month per editor (enterprise)
• Enterprise: Custom pricing (large enterprises)

Product Ecosystem Expansion

Figma is evolving beyond a simple design tool into an integrated product development platform:

Core Product Suite:

• Figma Design: Core UI/UX design tool
• FigJam: Collaborative whiteboard for idea brainstorming
• Dev Mode: Design-to-development handoff tool
• Slides: Presentation creation tool
• Sites: Website building tool (beta)

76% of customers use 2 or more products, creating strong platform lock-in effects. This is the key driver for preventing customer churn and continuously increasing Average Customer Value (ACV).

Evidence of Market Dominance

The Adobe acquisition failure incident most clearly demonstrates Figma's market dominance. In 2022, Adobe attempted a $20 billion acquisition, but UK and EU regulators blocked it citing 'market competition harm'.

As a result, Figma:

• Secured $1 billion contract termination fee
• Strengthened market monopoly with competitor Adobe XD investment halt
• Obtained regulatory authority-certified market leader position

This is official recognition by regulatory authorities that Figma is already in a monopolistic position, not just a startup.

Customer Base and Growth Drivers

Enterprise Customer Status:

• Used by 95% of Fortune 500 companies
• 1,042 customers paying over $100,000 annually (47% YoY growth)
• 70% of enterprise contracts started from individual users through bottom-up adoption

Geographic Growth Potential:

• 85% overseas users vs 53% overseas revenue
• 32 percentage point monetization gap is a clear opportunity for future growth

This is a growth driver that can be immediately utilized by simply converting existing overseas users to paying customers without new product development. Such clear short-term growth opportunities are rare among SaaS companies, attracting investor interest.

👨‍💼 CEO Dylan Field: Visionary Who Revolutionized an Industry Before Age 30

From Entrepreneurial Spirit to $18.8 Billion Company: Starting with College Dropout

Dylan Field was born in Petaluma, California in 1992, and co-founded Figma with Evan Wallace in 2012. His entrepreneurial journey is a textbook example of a typical Silicon Valley story.

Dylan Field was studying computer science at Brown University when he received the Thiel Fellowship in 2012, receiving $100,000 in support and dropping out of college to focus on founding Figma. At age 20, he casually thought of it as "almost like independent research, but you don't get credits, it's a bit longer, and you get paid."

Early Startup Challenges:

• Only internship experience at Microsoft Research, LinkedIn, etc.
• No team leadership experience
• Long 4-year product development period
• Crisis of mass employee departure

Crisis to Opportunity: Leadership Growth

Early Figma faced a serious crisis. It took years to release the beta version, and many frustrated employees left the company. The situation became so serious that senior team members staged a 'management intervention'.

Field honestly admits: "When I started Figma, I wasn't very good as a manager. I had been an intern before. I had so much to learn. I was always very optimistic and thought the launch was right around the corner, so I didn't set expectations properly."

This crisis became a turning point for Field. He left the office for several days to reflect on himself and focused on management coaching and leadership development. Since then, he has:

• Transformed into a 'listening CEO' who directly reads customer support tickets
• Directly communicates with users on Twitter
• Visits customers directly in Ukraine, Nigeria
• "Not all feedback is positive, but it helps me understand what's happening"

Innovative Vision: Management Philosophy Pursuing 'Decades-Long Growth'

Field's management philosophy is based on a long-term perspective. He views Figma not as a simple tool but as a platform, targeting "decades-long" growth.

Core Values Field Pursues:

• Accessibility: Democratization of design tools
• Collaboration: Transition from 'my idea' to 'our idea'
• Openness: Community-centered ecosystem building
• Sustainability: Prioritizing long-term value creation over short-term profits

He expresses it this way: "At its best, Figma is an invitation to go beyond the digital extension of our physical selves and let go of the ego to create a shared consciousness with others."

Dual-Class Structure: Double-Edged Sword

Even after the IPO, Field will hold 75% voting rights. This is a concern for investors, but from his perspective, it's a necessary condition for realizing long-term vision.

Advantages of Dual-Class Structure:

• Freedom from short-term performance pressure in decision-making
• Maintaining consistent product philosophy and corporate culture
• Ability to continue long-term R&D investments
• Aggressive investment possible in new technology areas like AI

Potential Risks:

• Lack of minority shareholder protection mechanisms
• Limited checks and balances when CEO makes personal judgment errors
• Corporate governance transparency concerns
• Exclusion of general shareholders from important decisions like M&A

Leadership and Investment Acumen Proven by Results

Field's leadership transformation has been proven by Figma's performance. He was selected for Forbes 30 Under 30 in 2015, and the company grew to receive a $20 billion Adobe acquisition proposal in 2020.

More interesting is his personal investment philosophy. When he bought CryptoPunk NFT in 2018, he thought it was "the dumbest thing I've ever done," but sold it for $7.5 million in 2021, setting the highest price record at the time. This shows his intuition for technology trends.

Currently, Field is also active as an angel investor in startups like OpenSea, Loom, Warp, and Netlify, contributing to building the next-generation technology ecosystem. His next decade is even more watched, having already revolutionized an industry in his early 30s.

🚀 Key Solutions and Platform: Entry Barriers and Future Growth Potential

Core Product Portfolio

Figma's product ecosystem has evolved beyond simple design tools into an integrated platform covering the entire product development workflow.

1. Figma Design (Core Product)

• Vector-based design tool that became the standard for UI/UX design
• Real-time multiplayer editing functionality
• Component system and design system management
• Prototyping and interaction design

2. FigJam (Collaborative Whiteboard)

• Digital whiteboard for idea brainstorming and workshops
• Support for sticky notes, diagrams, flowcharts, etc.
• Intuitive interface easy for non-designers to use

3. Dev Mode (Developer Tools)

• Smooth handoff from design to code
• Automatic generation of CSS, React, iOS, Android code
• Automatic extraction of design tokens and style guides

4. Slides (Presentations)

• Presentation creation utilizing design assets
• Direct insertion of interactive prototypes into presentations

5. Sites (Website Builder, Beta)

• Direct publishing from design to actual website
• No-code/low-code web development support

Building Strong Entry Barriers

1. Network Effects

Figma's strongest entry barrier is network effects. When one user uses Figma, everyone collaborating with them must also use Figma.

• 87% of customer base acquired through colleague recommendations
• Viral growth starting from one department and spreading to entire organization
• Ecosystem expansion including external partners and customers

2. High Switching Costs

Once an organization settles on Figma, switching to another tool is very difficult:

• Data Migration: Thousands of design files and components
• Learning Costs: Entire team learning new tool usage
• Workflow Reconstruction: Changing workflows integrated with existing processes
• External Connections: Existing collaboration relationships with clients, partners, development teams

3. Data Accumulation and AI Advantage

Figma is accumulating design data from 13 million users worldwide:

• Design Pattern Learning: AI learning which designs are effective
• Automation Features: AI-based automation of repetitive tasks
• Diagram Acquisition: Enhanced AI capabilities through 2023 AI plugin company acquisition

4. Developer Ecosystem Integration

Through Dev Mode, by integrating design-development workflows, Figma has become the center of the entire product development ecosystem beyond a simple design tool.

Future Growth Potential Analysis

1. TAM Expansion: Potential of $33 Billion Market

Figma estimates its Total Addressable Market (TAM) at approximately $33 billion. Considering current revenue of $821 million, this suggests over 40x growth potential remains.

Key Drivers of TAM Expansion:

• User Definition Expansion: 2/3 of customer base consists of non-designers
• Workflow Integration: Covering entire process from idea conception to product launch
• Platform Effect: 76% of customers use 2 or more products

2. Overseas Markets: Clear Growth Opportunity

Figma's most certain short-term growth driver is overseas market monetization:

• User vs Revenue Gap: 85% overseas users vs 53% overseas revenue
• 32 percentage point monetization gap: Immediately utilizable without new product development
• Low Entry Barriers: High product usage rate allows conversion with sales/marketing investment only

3. AI Strategy: Converting Threats to Opportunities

According to Figma's 2025 AI report, AI tool usage among Figma users surged from 21% in 2024 to 51% in 2025.

AI Integration Strategy:

• Figma Make: Automatic conversion from prompts to code
• Generative Design: Productivity improvement through automation of repetitive tasks
• Developer-Friendly: 82% of developers show satisfaction with AI tools

Investment Status:

• $586 million R&D investment in 2024, 40% allocated to AI/ML
• Concentrated AI innovation investment using $1 billion Adobe contract termination fee

4. Enterprise Customer Expansion: Power of Bottom-Up Growth

Fortune 500 Dominance:

• 78% adoption rate among Fortune 2000 companies achieved
• 70% of enterprise contracts started from individual users
• Land-and-Expand Strategy: Small entry → Department-wide → Company-wide expansion

High-Value Customer Growth:

• $100,000+ annual customers: 1,042 (47% YoY growth)
• Continuous increase in Average Customer Value (ACV)
• Enhanced customer lock-in through multi-product usage

Long-Term Growth Scenarios

Conservative Scenario (25% Annual Growth):

• 2030 Revenue: Approximately $2.5 billion
• Key Driver: Existing market share expansion

Base Scenario (35% Annual Growth):

• 2030 Revenue: Approximately $4.5 billion
• Key Driver: Overseas expansion + AI capability enhancement

Optimistic Scenario (45% Annual Growth):

• 2030 Revenue: Approximately $7.5 billion
• Key Driver: TAM expansion + New product category creation

Considering this growth potential and solid entry barriers, Figma is likely to become the standard for next-generation collaboration platforms beyond a simple design tool company.

💰 Financial Analysis and Investment Risk Considerations

Financial Performance: Top-Tier SaaS Company Metrics

Revenue Growth: Sustained High-Growth Momentum

Figma's revenue growth ranks among the top tier in the SaaS industry.

Annual Revenue Growth:

• 2023: $504.9 million
• 2024: $749.0 million (48% growth)
• Q1 2025: $228.0 million (46% YoY growth)

According to Q2 2025 preliminary results, revenue of $247-250 million represents 39-41% YoY growth continuation. Maintaining 40%+ growth for five consecutive years is a rare achievement even in the SaaS industry.

Profitability Indicators: Sound Revenue Structure

Key Profitability Metrics:

• Gross Margin: 88-91% (top cloud SaaS level)
• Q1 2025 Net Income: $44.9 million (turned profitable)
• Q2 2025 Operating Income: $9-12 million (4-5% operating margin)

Important Interpretation Points:

• 2023 $738 million net income: Includes $1 billion Adobe contract termination fee
• 2024 $732 million net loss: One-time stock compensation costs
• Actual operating performance shows steady improvement

Excluding one-time items, Figma is continuously improving profitability along with revenue growth.

Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)

Customer Expansion Metrics:

• Net Dollar Retention (NDR): 132%
• $100,000+ Annual Customers: 1,042 (47% YoY growth)
• Rule of 40: 64 points (46% growth rate + 18% operating margin)

User Base:

• Monthly Active Users: 13 million
• Fortune 500 Company Adoption Rate: 95%
• Overseas User Proportion: 85% (monetization gap exists)

132% NDR means existing customers are not only staying but paying 32% more each year. This is a key indicator showing the product's value is continuously being proven.

Financial Position: Strong Cash Holdings

Asset Status:

• Cash and Cash Equivalents: $1.5+ billion
• Debt: Virtually debt-free
• Adobe Contract Termination Fee: $1 billion (received in 2023)

This strong cash position serves as 'war funds' enabling aggressive investment in AI investment, M&A, and R&D. It provides the capacity to continue stable growth investments even during economic downturns or market volatility.

Figma Key Financial Metrics Summary

• Includes Adobe fee, ** Includes stock compensation costs

Key Risks to Consider When Investing

1. Valuation Risk: Burden of High Expectations

Current Valuation Level:

• Revenue multiple (P/S) 17-20x, premium compared to Smartsheet (6.3x), Atlassian (9.1x)
• Fully diluted enterprise value of $18.8 billion based on IPO price
• Perfect execution assumed: Stock price may react sensitively to small mistakes

Risk Factors:

• Valuation adjustment inevitable if growth rate slows
• Tech stock valuation pressure during economic downturns
• Long-term returns limited if first-day surge vs. IPO price

2. Governance Risk: Founder's Absolute Power

Dual-Class Structure Issues:

• CEO Dylan Field holds 75% voting rights
• Limited management oversight by general shareholders
• Exclusion of minority shareholders from board composition, M&A decisions

Dual Nature of CEO Management Philosophy:

• Advantages: Pursuing long-term vision, freedom from short-term market pressure
• Disadvantages: Potential for decisions conflicting with shareholder interests
• "Decades-long growth" priority may sacrifice short-term profitability

3. Dual Nature of AI Technology Advancement

AI as Both Opportunity and Threat:

• Figma itself acknowledges generative AI could reduce dependence on its platform
• Design work automation → Potential reduction in Figma usage necessity
• Threat of disruptive innovation from new AI companies

Intensifying Competition:

• Emergence of AI-first competitors like Lovable with $400 million investment
• Adobe's AI counterattack (Firefly, etc.)
• Potential entry of big tech companies into design tool market

4. Customer Concentration and Market Dependency Risk

Large Enterprise Customer Dependency Risk:

• Few large enterprise customers contribute significantly to ARR
• Concentrated revenue impact if major customers churn
• Amplified effects during corporate IT budget cuts

Market Saturation Possibility:

• 95% of Fortune 500 companies already adopted
• Dependence on existing customer expansion rather than new customer acquisition
• Inevitable natural growth rate deceleration

5. Regulatory and Policy Risks

Antitrust Concerns:

• Market dominance officially recognized through Adobe acquisition failure
• Close regulatory scrutiny for future M&A
• Trend toward strengthening platform monopoly-related regulations

Data Privacy:

• Past controversy over using customer designs for AI training
• Strengthening data protection regulations like GDPR, CCPA
• Increasing enterprise customer data security requirements

Risk vs. Return Outlook Matrix

Investment Decision Considerations

Investment Suitability:

• Growth Stock Investors: Attractive despite high valuation
• Value Investors: May be burdensome at current price
• Dividend Investors: Dividends not expected in near term

Investment Timing:

• Post-IPO: Expected high volatility
• After 6 months: More stable investment possible after performance verification
• Long-term Investment: Risk-return expectations for 3-5+ year holdings

Figma's financial foundation is certainly solid, but investment decisions should be made after careful review of high valuation and structural risks.

🏟️ Competitive Analysis and Valuation Analysis

Design Tool Market Transformation: Adobe's Decline and Figma's Rise

The design software market has been completely reorganized over the past five years. Currently, Figma holds 40.65% market share in the design software industry, significantly ahead of competitors like Adobe XD and InVision.

This is a remarkable change. Considering Figma's market share was less than 20% in 2018, it has emerged as the market leader in just seven years. Meanwhile, Adobe XD announced development discontinuation, effectively exiting the market.

Major Competitor Analysis: Respective Limitations and Figma's Advantages

1. Adobe XD: Effective Surrender Declaration

Adobe XD can no longer be purchased as an independent application, with only continued support for existing users. This means Adobe has effectively given up competing with Figma.

• Advantages: Creative Cloud integration, strong prototyping
• Limitations: Lack of web-based collaboration features, development discontinued
• Market Share: 13.54% (continuous decline)

2. Sketch: Limitations of Mac-Only

Sketch only works on macOS and doesn't natively support Windows. This is a fatal disadvantage in global enterprise environments.

• Advantages: Fast performance, strong plugin ecosystem
• Limitations: Platform restrictions, lagging real-time collaboration features
• Market Share: About 15% (stagnant)

3. Canva: Different Market Target

Canva has a differentiated position targeting general users rather than professional UI/UX designers.

• Advantages: Ease of use, rich templates
• Limitations: Insufficient features for professional design work
• Market Share: About 8% (focused on non-professional market)

Overwhelming Advantage in Collaboration Features

Figma's real-time collaboration features are still overwhelming compared to competitors. The ability for designers, developers, and project managers to simultaneously edit the same file and add comments has changed 'design handoff' to 'design hangout'.

Collaboration Features Comparison:

Figma's Dominance in Market Share Data

Figma's share in the design software market is 40.65%, significantly ahead of second-place competitors. Particularly in the information technology services sector, 12,842 companies use Figma, accounting for 19% of all users.

Usage by Company Size:

• Under 50 employees: 44% (Figma strong)
• 100-1,000 employees: 42% (balanced)
• Large enterprises: Continued competition with Adobe XD, etc.

Regional Market Dominance:

• United States: 38% user base (largest market)
• India: 7% (rapid growth)
• Europe: 25% (high monetization potential)

Meaning of Adobe Acquisition Failure: Market Dominance Recognized by Regulators

Adobe's $20 billion acquisition proposal in 2022 being blocked by regulators is an official recognition of Figma's market dominance. UK and EU regulators blocked the acquisition citing "market competition harm," suggesting Figma is already in a monopolistic position.

Results of Acquisition Failure:

• Figma: Acquired $1 billion contract termination fee
• Adobe: XD development discontinued, effectively gave up market
• Market: Completed structure of Figma dominance without competition

💰 SaaS Industry Valuation Comparison

Valuation Benchmark Analysis

Figma's IPO price-based revenue multiple (P/S) of 17-20x may seem high, but it's reasonable compared to top-tier SaaS companies.

Major SaaS Company Valuation Comparison:

Growth Rate vs. Valuation: Rule of 40 Analysis

Rule of 40 is a metric combining SaaS company growth rate and profitability, with 40+ considered excellent.

Major Company Rule of 40 Comparison:

Figma's Rule of 40 score of 64 points is industry top-tier.

Figma's Unique Premium Elements

1. Network Effects and Platform Monopoly Power

• 87% of customer base acquired through colleague recommendations
• Very high switching costs once adopted
• Community ecosystem forms strong entry barriers

2. Sustained High Growth and Profitability Improvement

• 40%+ growth sustained for 5 consecutive years
• Excellent business model with 90%+ gross margin
• Continuous profitability improvement through operating leverage

3. TAM Expansion Potential

• Current revenue $800 million vs. estimated TAM $33 billion
• 40x+ growth potential
• Short-term growth drivers secured through overseas market monetization gap

Valuation Appropriateness Analysis

Fair Price Range Estimates:

In the case of Smartsheet and Atlassian, while showing similar revenue growth rates, Smartsheet's P/S ratio is half that of Atlassian. This shows the market evaluates each company's market dominance and growth potential differently.

If Figma receives the same P/S multiple as Atlassian, a simple calculation suggests the stock price could rise to about $120. While this is a simple comparison not considering other factors, it suggests Figma's upside potential.

Investment Attractiveness vs. Industry Peers

Competitive Comparison from Investment Perspective:

Conclusion: Premium Valuation but Justifiable

Figma's 17-20x P/S multiple is certainly high, but can be justified considering the following factors:

Justification Elements:

1. Market-Monopolistic Position: 40.65% market share and Adobe acquisition blocked
2. Sustainable High Growth: 46% growth rate and Rule of 40 score of 64 points
3. Strong Profitability: 90%+ gross margin and 132% NDR
4. Massive Growth Potential: 40x TAM vs. current and overseas expansion opportunities

Cautions:

• Starting at a price reflecting high expectations
• Perfect execution must be assumed
• Stock price may react sensitively to small mistakes

Therefore, investors should recognize Figma's excellent corporate quality and growth potential while establishing investment strategies that fully consider valuation risks.

🎯 Conclusion: Figma IPO Investment Decision Guide

It's Certainly a Big Fish IPO

As the 40x oversubscription shows, the market has already recognized Figma's value. However, the correspondingly raised expectations have pushed up the IPO price, creating both opportunities and risk factors for investors.

Reconfirming Figma's Essential Strengths

Clear Competitive Advantages:

• Absolute dominator of collaborative design market: 40.65% market share
• Excellent business model with 90%+ gross margin: Top SaaS level
• Customer loyalty proven by 132% NDR: Continuous expansion of existing customers
• Strategic flexibility with $1.5 billion cash holdings: Enables aggressive investment in AI, M&A, etc.

Diversified Growth Drivers:

• Overseas Markets: Closing the gap between 85% users vs. 53% revenue
• Enterprise Customer Expansion: From 95% Fortune 500 adoption to company-wide expansion
• AI Integration: Proactive response converting threats to opportunities
• Platform Expansion: From design tools to product development ecosystem

Risks That Must Be Endured

Structural Risks:

• High valuation of 17-20x revenue: Assumes perfect execution
• Governance risk of CEO absolute power: 75% voting rights concentration
• Long-term threat of AI technology advancement: Potential for disruptive innovation
• Market saturation possibility: 95% of Fortune 500 already adopted

Final Investment Judgment

Recommended Investment Strategy:

Core Investment Logic:

1. Market Dominance: Monopolistic position recognized even by regulators
2. Growth Sustainability: Momentum of 40%+ growth for 5 consecutive years
3. Profitability Improvement: Operating profit improvement from 90%+ gross margin
4. Expansion Potential: 40x TAM, 32%p overseas monetization gap

Warning Signals to Watch:

• Quarterly growth rate deceleration below 35%
• NDR decline below 120%
• Breakthrough product launches by major competitors
• Shareholder backlash against CEO's unilateral decisions

Post-Listing Stock Price Scenarios

First Trading Day Expectations:

• Conservative: 10-20% rise then correction
• Base: 30-50% rise then continued volatility
• Optimistic: 100%+ surge then correction from highs

6-Month Outlook:

• Performance verification and market adaptation period
• Fundamental-centered evaluation after initial volatility settles
• Re-evaluation based on relative performance vs. competitors

1-3 Year Long-term Outlook:

• Determined by AI integration results and overseas expansion outcomes
• If successful, 200-500% rise possible vs. current price
• If failed, 50% downside risk vs. current price

Pre-Investment Decision Checklist

Financial Factors:

• Whether quarterly growth rate maintains 40%+
• Whether NDR maintains 130%+
• Whether operating margin continuously improves
• Cash burn rate and investment efficiency

Market Factors:

• Signs of major customer churn
• Threatening product launches by new competitors
• Impact of AI technology advancement on Figma
• Regulatory environment change possibilities

Management Factors:

• Whether CEO decisions align with shareholder interests
• Core talent departure situations
• New product launch plans and execution capability
• Rationality of M&A strategy

Final Advice: Time for Cool-Headed Judgment

Figma is certainly an excellent company. It created a new market called collaborative design, dominates that market, and has ample room for future growth. However, good companies and good investments are separate matters.

Points to Consider at This Time:

Supporting Arguments:

• "The only company that could become the next Adobe"
• "Platform leading the future of collaboration"
• "Human creativity remains important even in the AI era"
• "High growth sustainable for 3-5 years through global expansion alone"

Opposing Arguments:

• "All good news already reflected in price"
• "Difficult to continuously meet high expectations"
• "Potential shareholder value destruction through dual-class structure"
• "Design work itself may be simplified by AI advancement"

Conclusion

Figma's IPO will be a touchstone for the 2025 tech IPO market. If successful, it will signal the revival of the stagnant tech IPO market; if it fails, it will further strengthen market wariness about high valuations.

Figma is certainly a company that will play an important role in the digital future we'll live in. However, how much to pay now for that future value will vary according to each person's investment philosophy and situation.

Final Word: While Figma being a good company is certain, whether we can buy it at a good price remains unknown. Wise investors should distinguish between corporate value and stock price when making judgments.

This analysis is for investment reference only, and investment decisions should be made based on individual judgment and responsibility. IPO investments particularly involve high volatility and risks, requiring careful review.